Appendix
III
|
Appendix
III
|
| Expected number of marriages of a Duncan Cameron and Grizal Kennedy in Inverness, Argyll and Perth 1791/1800 (any name spelling): |
|
Population
in the period
|
Inverness
|
180,000 est. |
|
|||
|
Argyll
|
180,000 est. |
Total
population:
|
|
|||
|
Perth
|
130,000 in 1887 |
490,000
|
in
1795, say 80%
|
392,000
|
||
|
Proportion
/ number of that population (male) named 'Duncan Cameron'
|
200
|
.005
|
%
|
45%
male
|
882
|
|
|
Proportion
/ number of 'Duncan Camerons' of marriageable age during period (33 /
60)
|
.55
|
.00275
|
%
(a)
|
485
|
||
|
Proportion
/ number of that population (female named 'Grizal Kennedy'
|
1000
|
.001
|
%
|
55%
female
|
216
|
|
|
Proportion
/ number of 'Grizal Kennedys' of marriageable age during period (27 /
65)
|
.42
|
.000415385
|
%
(b)
|
90
|
||
|
Combined
probability:
|
||||||
|
expected
proportion / number of Duncan Cameron-Grizal Kennedy marriages in period
|
.000001
|
%
(a) x (b)
|
.45
|
|||
| Expected number of marriages of a Duncan Cameron and Grizal Kennedy in Rannoch 1791/1800 (any name spelling): | ||||||
|
Population
of the district in the period
|
Rannoch
|
30,000
in 1887
|
in
1795 say
|
80%
|
24,000
|
|
| Proportion / number of that population (male) named 'Duncan Cameron' | 50 | .02 | % | 45% male | 216 | |
|
Proportion
/ number of 'Duncan Camerons' of marriageable age during period (33 /
60)
|
.55
|
.011
|
%
(c)
|
119
|
||
|
Proportion
/ number of that population (female named 'Grizal Kennedy'
|
250
|
.004
|
%
|
55%
female
|
53
|
|
|
Proportion
/ number of 'Grizal Kennedys' of marriageable age during period (27 /
65)
|
.42
|
.001661538
|
%
(d)
|
22
|
||
|
Combined
probability:
|
||||||
|
expected
proportion / number of Duncan Cameron-Grizal Kennedy marriages in period
|
.000018
|
%
(c) x (d)
|
.44
|
|||
| Sensitivity of the Rannoch data: | ||||||
| a. varying one characteristic at a time | ||||||
| Population of the district in the period | 90,000 | (1) |
1.32
|
|||
| 70,000 | (2) |
1.02
|
||||
| 50,000 | (3) |
.73
|
||||
| Proportion / number of that population (male) named 'Duncan Cameron' | 35 | (4) |
.63
|
|||
| 65 | (5) |
.34
|
||||
| 80 | (6) |
.27
|
||||
| Proportion / number of that population (female named 'Grizal Kennedy' | 150 | (7) |
.73
|
|||
| 350 | (8) |
.31
|
||||
| 500 | (9) |
.22
|
||||
| b. combining the three highest characteristics | ||||||
| highest combination | (1) x (4) x (7) |
3.13
|
||||
| c. combining the three middle characteristics | ||||||
| middle combination | (2) x (5) x (8) |
.56
|
||||
| d. combining the three lowest characteristics | ||||||
|
lowest
combination
|
(3)
x (6) x (9)
|
.23
|
||||